AirAsia QZ8501 flight missing

Seriously? I guess those LPV approaches rely on luck then...

Sparkie, I thought it was pretty accurate. I remember back when the Feds were certifying each individual airplane for MNPS that they did it with GPS.

Sully hit the water in a controlled manner. Since this crew didn't even make a radio call, I have a feeling that the ditching pushbutton would not helped.

Sully said they didn't get to the ditch switch... they fell from far less than cruising altitude and couldn't make it through the restart procedure. I'm assuming that this may be what sparked Mr. Wernicke's comment.

Thanks for your comments PF. Here are my thoughts on the matter.

We know that the weather was terrible at the time QZ8501 was transiting that area, both the meteorologists and ATC have confirmed that. It has also been reported that the pilots called for a change to the flight plan either altitude or deviation from the planned route or both. Remember that most of the stuff you and I hear is mainly from news reports and how reliable are they? I have only heard what sounds plausible to me, that ATC confirms that the pilots called for an altitude increase due to weather but whether they received a clearance to climb, I have not heard.

Put yourself in the pilot's seat. Your weather radar is producing images showing SEVERE weather ahead. If you are in the clear, you can see enormous CBs towering up ahead. You know that at FL320 in that aircraft your climbing rate is not very good and your airspeed at max. safe power is not very far from the stall speed at that altitude, so if you are going to outclimb the peaks of the clouds you have to get going NOW. You can see it is going to be tight whether you can in fact climb over the peaks, so you are sweating as you with full power pull the nose higher than recommended, and in so doing you are getting very close to the stalling speed. You are not quite over the cloud as you enter the top of the cloud. In large tropical CBs there are enormously powerful up and down drafts at the edge of the cloud. Suddenly such a powerful updraft hits you, pushes your nose up very high while both you and your co-pilot in unison frantically try to push the control column forward to get the nose down and counteract a stall. But to no avail! Your aircraft shutters violently, stall warning horns wail loudly, then suddenly your aircraft stalls while in an unusual nose high attitude and full power. A violent stall ensues, your nose drops rapidly through the horizon which you can't see, because you are envelloped by the cloud, until the nose is pointing almost straight down. One of the wings also drop and the aircraft begins a roll. You can't stop the roll with your ailerons because your wings have stalled so you do the best you can by using opposite rudder. The roll slows down and the aircraft is now inverted, you are upside-down head down hanging in your safety harness (I hope you tightened it when you sat down). You have pulled the throttles back to idle because your nose is pointing straight down and you are rapidly bulding up speed, very, very rapidly. At this speed you will hit the water within 60-90 seconds. Before that if you cannot break the descend your aircraft will soon exceed the max. safe structural speed and then it starts to break up in mid air. First perhaps the engines get ripped off, next perhaps the tail and finally the wings and your aircraft is a brick which is trying to glide like a glider. Is there anything you can do? Perhaps. When the aircraft started into a roll and you ended up inverted, release the pressure on the rudder and let the aircraft continue the roll till it is right-side up again, while you do your best to try to get the nose into a position just above the horison while slowing down the aircraft to the best gliding speed (yes, that's true, even an airliner can glide). If you get the aircraft gliding you attempt to get the engines going, if you have still got them. If that fails then you continue a controlled descend whille telling the cabin crew to get ready for ditching. You do your best to try to get a surface landing as smooth as possible, but have no illutions, that is EXTREMELY difficult and very few pilots have ever succeeded! BTW in the midst of all of this why didn't you take time off to call ATC and explain your predicament??? I think you know why now! If you did NOT succeed you have no control any longer and you will likely crash into the water at high speed. At high speed water feels almost like concrete, so your aircraft will break up and it is unlikely that anyone will surevive.

So what did happen to QZ8501? We don't yet know, but if we can get our hands on the flight recorders then there is at least a level chance that we may find out. I'm sorry, please forgive for painting this sad scenario, folks.

Despite all of the above, FLYING IS STILL MUCH SAFER THAN ANY OTHER MODE OF TRANSPORT!!! When you next are going flying, please drive carefully on the road, so you can look forward to a pleasant flight.

My sincerest commisserations to the families and friends of the people who trvelled on QZ8501.

Ole

I thought that is what you meant. I know what you are talking about, i"m only a handful of years behind you. ;-) I'm saddened to hear about your wife's surgery. I will pray for both of you, my friend.

Best wishes for successful outcome and rapid recovery

How's your wife?

John, 70 is the new 50! Best wishes from OZ (YCFS) for your wife's recovery. Lots of us oldies have been through heart surgery.

It would take quite the imagination since my name doesn't appear anywhere around here. However, I will tell you my paternal grandmother's maiden name is Soderberg. Swedish enough?